Shocks and tourism demand : evidence from past crises

Mestrado Bolonha em EconomiaThe Covid-19 outbreak has had a huge impact not only on the daily lives of people all over the world, but also on their travel intentions. Though this event has not been the first one to shut down the tourism industry, it will with the forecast of more natural disasters and pandemic outbreaks due to global warming, also not be the last one. It is important to understand how different economies are affected by different kinds of shocks, to fasten the recovery of the destination image and with that the tourism demand for a country. By employing a 2SLS model for the period 1995-2017, with data from different sources but mainly from UNWTO and WDI, this study finds significant negative effects of terrorism and financial crises for tourist arrivals globally. However, these results show that they are heterogenous for different types of economies. This heterogeneity is confirmed by Panel Least Squares estimations and Granger-causality analysis on the relationship between tourism and economic impact.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio